US GDP growth. Goodbye, recession?

According to data released on 02/28/02 by the US Department of Commerce, in the last quarter of 2001, US GDP growth turned out to be significantly higher than previously thought. The latest figures show that in the last three months of last year, the American economy grew by 1.4% on an annual basis. According to preliminary data, economic growth in the fourth quarter was expected to be only 0.2%, while analysts predicted 0.9% growth. Recall that in the third quarter, US GDP decreased by 1.3%.
This indicator of US GDP reflects, first of all, an increase in consumer spending on goods produced in the United States and a record increase in federal government spending since 1978.
The growth of consumer spending today continues to play a major role in keeping the U.S. economy afloat, offsetting the effects of reduced investment in manufacturing. Consumer spending in the United States increased by 6% in the fourth quarter (1% in the third quarter). Meanwhile, spending on durable goods immediately increased by 39.2%. At the same time, the volume of investments in the fourth quarter decreased by 13.1% (in the third quarter - by 8.5%), and expenses on hardware and software - by 4.8% (-8.8% in the third quarter).
According to the Commercial Department, the increase in consumer spending is primarily due to strong sales of cars and other durable goods, which increased by 39.2% this quarter. According to the Air Force agency, spending by American consumers on the purchase of durable goods is currently growing at the fastest rate in the last 15 years.
U.S. exports in the fourth quarter decreased by 12.2% (in the third quarter - by 18.8%), imports - by 6.9% (-13% in July-August). Federal government spending increased by 11.6% (3.6% in the third quarter), including defense spending by 9.4%.
Such favorable GDP growth dynamics indicates that, most likely, the American economy has already reached its lowest point of recession and is gradually returning to previous growth rates. Nevertheless, although most economists today hold similar views, many, including the chairman of the US Federal Reserve, Alan Greenspan himself, are not yet sure how long this recovery will take and how significant its results will be.
Speaking to Congress on 02/27/02, Greenspan stated that there were clear signs of an early end to the current recession. At the same time, the Fed chairman notes, the future recovery of the American economy will not go as fast as many optimists expect today.
In his speech, Greenspan noted a number of symptoms indicating an improvement in the US economy in recent months, paying particular attention to such indicators as consumer spending. According to him, the favorable dynamics of these indicators allowed the Fed to stop the aggressive easing of monetary policy that began last year, during which the value of short-term interest rates was reduced to 1.75%. "In recent months, it has become increasingly obvious that the forces that restrained the development of the economy over the past year, They are gradually becoming a thing of the past, contributing to the revival of economic activity," said the head of the Fed. At the same time, he noted that "due to a number of factors characteristic of this economic cycle, the pace of the expected recovery of the American economy is likely to be somewhat slowed down."
According to the data announced by Greenspan, the Fed believes that this year the US economy will grow by 2.5%-3% compared to the fourth quarter of last year. Thus, the US GDP will grow about twice as slowly as it usually does during the economic recovery after the end of the recession. The Fed chief notes that a full-scale recovery in economic activity will require a significant increase in investment, which so far seems unlikely to him. "Investment growth is likely to be negligible," he said.
Greenspan also said that in the near future, the dynamics of consumer spending, the main driving force of the US economy, seems to him extremely uncertain. He is also concerned about the expected increase in the unemployment rate, which could affect a reduction in consumer spending. According to the US Federal Reserve, this year the unemployment rate, which stood at 5.6% in January, may rise to 6.25%.
As for the inflation rate, according to Fed experts, it will continue to remain relatively low, which, in particular, is due to the reluctance of companies in the current conditions to increase the burden on consumers. Thus, the Fed believes that one of the leading indicators of inflation, the price index of personal consumption expenditures, will grow by only 1.5% this year (previously, experts called the figures from 1.75% to 2.5%).
During his speech, Greenspan separately addressed the issue of the collapse of the energy giant Enron. According to him, the "Enron effect" may make other companies belonging to the "New Economy" more sensitive to the consequences of the collapse of their business partners. Companies like Enron, whose value is;:largely based on their capitalized reputation&They can lose everything overnight if investors lose their trust. Speaking about the lessons that business America should learn from the collapse of Enron, Greenspan noted the need for mutual coordination of the interests of the company's shareholders and its management. Virtual sports offer non-stop betting opportunities around the clock, seven days a week. New users should be sure to use melbet new promo code during the straightforward registration process on Melbet to maximize their first deposit. After entering the code and depositing, you will receive a 100% matched bonus up to €130 specifically for sports betting, including virtual football and virtual horse racing. This extra cash lets you place more bets on simulated events that run 24/7 regardless of real-world schedules. The platform also offers virtual greyhounds and other racing options.

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US GDP growth. Goodbye, recession?

US GDP growth. Goodbye, recession?

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